TOKYO -- Masaya Igarashi wants $200 headphones for his new iPodTouch, and he's torn between Nintendo Co.'s Wii and Sony'sPlayStation 3 game consoles. When he has saved up again, he plans tosplurge on a digital camera or flat-screen TV.
There's one conspicuous omission from the college student'sshopping list: a new computer.
The PC's role in Japanese homes is diminishing, as its once-awesome monopoly on processing power is encroached by gadgets suchas smart phones that act like pocket-size computers, advancedInternet-connected game consoles, digital video recorders withterabytes of memory.
"A new PC just isn't high on my priority list right now," saidIgarashi, shopping at a Bic Camera electronics shop in centralTokyo, who said his three-year-old desktop was "good for now."
"For the cost, I'd rather buy something else," he said.
Japan's PC market is already shrinking, leading analysts towonder whether Japan will become the first major market to see adecline in personal computer use some 25 years after itrevolutionized household electronics -- and whether this could bethe picture of things to come in other countries.
"The household PC market is losing momentum to other electronicslike flat-panel TVs and mobile phones," said Masahiro Katayama,research group head at market survey firm IDC.
Overall PC shipments in Japan have fallen for five consecutivequarters, the first ever drawn-out decline in PC sales in a keymarket, according to IDC. The trend shows no signs of letting up: Inthe second quarter of 2007, desktops fell 4.8 percent and laptops3.1 percent.
NEC's and Sony's sales have been falling since 2006 in Japan.Hitachi Ltd. said Oct. 22 it will pull out of the household computerbusiness entirely in an effort to refocus its sprawling operations.
"Consumers aren't impressed anymore with bigger hard drives orfaster processors. That's not as exciting as a bigger TV," Katayamasaid. "And in Japan, kids now grow up using mobile phones, not PCs.The future of PCs isn't bright."
PC makers beg to differ, and they're aggressively marketing theirproducts in the countries where they're seeing the most sales growth-- places where residents have never had a PC. The industry isresponding in two other ways: reminding detractors that computersare still essential in linking the digital universe and releasingseveral laptops priced below $300 this holiday shopping season.
And, though Sales in the U.S. are slowing too, booming demand inthe industrializing world is expected to buoy worldwide PC shipments11 percent to an all-time high of 286 million in 2007. And, outsideJapan, Asia is a key growth area, with second-quarter sales jumping21.9 percent this year.
Hitachi had already stopped making PCs for individual consumerssince releasing this year's summer models, although the Tokyo-basedmanufacturer will keep making some computers for corporate clients.Personal computers already accounted for less than 1 percent ofHitachi's annual sales.
It's clear why consumers are shunning PCs.
Millions download music directly to their mobiles, and many moreuse their handsets for online shopping and to play games. Digitalcameras connect directly to printers and high-definition TVs forviewing photos, bypassing PCs altogether. Movies now downloadstraight to TVs.
More than 50 percent of Japanese send e-mail and browse theInternet from their mobile phones, according to a 2006 survey by theMinistry of Internal Affairs. The same survey found that 30 percentof people with e-mail on their phones used PC-based e-mail less,including 4 percent who said they had stopped sending e-mails fromPCs completely.
The fastest growing social networking site here, Mobagay Town, isdesigned exclusively for cell phones. Other networking sites likemixi, Facebook and MySpace can all be accessed and updated fromhandsets, as can the video-sharing site YouTube.
And while a lot of the decline is in household PCs, businessesare also waiting longer to replace their computers partly becauserecent advances in PC technology are only incremental, analysts say.
At a consumer electronics event in Tokyo in October, the mostlyunpopular stalls showcasing new PCs contrasted sharply with thecrowded displays of flat-panel TVs.
"There's no denying PCs are losing their spunk in Japaneseconsumers' eyes," said Hiroyuki Ishii, a sales official at Japan'stop PC maker, NEC Corp. "There seems to be less and less things onlya PC can do," Ishii said. "The PC's value will fade unless the PCcan offer some breakthrough functions."
The slide has made PC manufacturers desperate to maintain theirpresence in Japanese homes. Recent desktop PCs look more likeaudiovisual equipment -- or even colorful art objects -- thancomputers.
Sony Corp.'s desktop computers have folded up to become clocks,and its latest version even hangs on the wall. Laptops in a new Sonyline are adorned with illustrations from hip designers like ZAnPon.NEC is trying to make its PCs' cooling fans quieter -- to address acommon complaint from customers, it says.
Still, sluggish sales weigh on manufacturers.
NEC's annual PC shipments in Japan shrank 6.2 percent to 2.72million units in 2006, though overall earnings have been buoyed bymobile phone and networking solutions operations. The trendcontinued in the first quarter of fiscal 2007 then there was a 14percent decline from a year earlier.
Sony's PC shipments for Japan shrank 10 percent in 2006 from ayear earlier. But it isn't about to throw in the towel -- yet.
"We feel we've reached a new stage in PC development, whereconsumers are looking for user-friendly machines to complement otherelectronics," said Hiroko Nakamura, a Sony official in Tokyo.
Sony's latest PCs, for example, come with a powerful program thatcan take photos and video clips and automatically edit them into aslideshow set to music.
Even Cupertino-based Apple Inc., whose computer sales and marketshare are surging in the U.S., has seen Macintosh unit sales inJapan slip 5 percent year-on-year in the first nine months of 2007.
There are other reasons Japan is the first market to see PCsshrink, some analysts say.
"We think of Japanese as workaholics, but many don't take workhome," said Damian Thong, a technology analyst at Macquarie Bank inJapan. "Once they leave the office, they're often content withtapping e-mails or downloading music on their phones," he said.
As Hitachi's shuttering of its household PC businessdemonstrates, making PCs has become less attractive. IBM Corp. alsoleft the PC business in 2005, selling its computer unit to China'sLenovo Group Ltd.
But NEC's Ishii is persisting.
"We have to get the message out there that PCs are on top interms of computing power," he said. "They always will be."
Комментариев нет:
Отправить комментарий